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• Time of issue:2020-08-14
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(Summary description)In its annual economic publication "Asia Development Outlook 2012", ADB predicts that as the world's second largest economy, China's GDP growth rate will reach 8.5% in 2012 and 2013 after reaching 9.2% in 2011. % And 8.7%. The inflation rate is expected to remain at around 4% in the next two years.

Paul Haydens, chief representative of the ADB representative office in China, pointed out at a press conference in Beijing that in the next two years, investment will continue to be the main engine driving China’s economic growth. Infrastructure construction areas such as railways, agricultural irrigation and urban public transportation Investment in other areas will accelerate. In addition, China will build 7 million affordable housing units this year, which will partially offset the impact of the slowdown in real estate investment growth.

In terms of consumption, Haydens believes that the driving force for China's consumption growth in the future will come from the continuous improvement in employment conditions, the increase in wage levels and the continuous increase in government social expenditures.

The ADB report predicts that imported inflationary pressure will be reduced this year, and the government's continued regulation of the real estate market will also help control domestic inflation. “Although China’s CPI rebounded to 3.6% year-on-year in March, which exceeded analysts’ expectations, the inflation rate will continue to decline throughout the year.” Haydens believes that as China’s inflationary pressures ease, this year’s macroeconomic policy The focus will shift from "controlling inflation" to "stabilizing growth."

The report believes that in the next two years, China's fiscal policy is expected to continue to be expansionary, and fiscal expenditures will continue to tilt toward education, medical care, pensions, affordable housing and other social security projects. Monetary policy will remain stable. In addition, as rising costs have affected the competitiveness of Chinese export products, the pace of RMB appreciation may slow down.

Haydens pointed out that the main downside risk facing China's economy comes from the fragility of external demand. In view of the deteriorating terms of trade and the bleak global economic outlook, the contribution of net exports to economic growth is still negative. In addition, we must be alert to the impact of domestic local government debt. He suggested that China should continue to firmly promote inclusive growth and environmentally sustainable development to ensure the sustainability of economic growth.